Introduction

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and associated professions now rely heavily on a combination of epidemiology, statistics, and mathematical modeling. They do so to alter individual and collective behaviors in the name of public health. A remarkably large number of subject matters is being subsumed under “public health,” including secondary (“perimetric”) boycotts of institutions funded by tobacco companies, fossil fuel divestment, Independence Day fireworks, so-called “anti-racism,” the anti-Israel Boycott, Divest, and Sanction (BDS) movement, and “social policy” generally. Many of these subjects seem to reflect political motivation; in any case, they should be regarded as political goals rather than as matters of public health.

As the authors of Protecting the Integrity of Government Science (2022) wrote, “The American public has the right to expect from its government accurate information, data, and evidence and scientifically-informed policies, practices, and communications. This requires scientific integrity—based on rigorous scientific research that is free from politically motivated suppression or distortion.”

The Federal government should not impose regulations based on research that is not publicly accessible, and that therefore is not reproducible. Our model bill requires federal public health agencies only to use or fund preregistered and publicly accessible mathematical models in all forecasts, policymaking, and interventions. It also requires federal agencies to establish an archive of all mathematical models used in forecasts, policymaking, and interventions, with complete documentation of the performance of each mathematical model.

Our model bill refers to the {Centers for Disease Control and Prevention}. The bill should be adjusted by policymakers to refer to some or all individual federal agencies using mathematical models. Similar references to the {Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention}, the {Executive Branch Office}, the {Senate Committee}, and the {House Committee} also should be adjusted appropriately by policymakers.

Model Legislative Text

1. Preregistered Mathematical Models. The {Centers for Disease Control and Prevention} after {Month Day, Year} may include only preregistered and publicly accessible mathematical models in all forecasts, policymaking, and interventions.
2. Mathematical Models Grant Funding. The {Centers for Disease Control and Prevention} may only fund preregistered and publicly accessible mathematical models in all grant awards awarded after {Month Day, Year}, including categorical grants, discretionary grants, formula grants, and research grants.
3. Public Mathematical Models Archive. The {Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention} shall establish within one calendar year of {Month Day, Year} a publicly accessible online digital repository including all mathematical models used by the {Centers for Disease Control and Prevention} in all forecasts, policymaking, and interventions, with complete documentation of the performance of each mathematical model.
4. Waivers. The {Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention} may provide an individual waiver for subsections (1) and (2) if:
   1. on an annual basis, starting no later than {Month Day, Year}, he submits to the {Executive Branch Office}, the {Senate Committee}, and the {House Committee} a report cataloguing, describing, and explaining each waiver granted under his authority in subsection (4); and
   2. he creates within one year of {Month Day, Year} a set and detailed procedure to allow private individuals and organizations to challenge each waiver granted under his authority in subsections (1) and (2).
5. Severability. If any provision of this chapter, or the application of any provision to any person or circumstance, is held to be invalid, the remainder of this chapter and the application of its provisions to any other person or circumstance shall not be affected thereby.
6. Definitions.
   1. “Preregistered mathematical models” shall be defined as mathematical models whose registered report, including associated protocols, prospective validation practices, specified, agreed-upon rules for judging success and/or the need for recalibration, computer codes, data analysis scripts, and statistical analyses are archived on an online digital repository in a manner sufficient for continuing independent inspection, replication, reproduction, and/or verification. This online digital repository shall have archival and accessibility capacities at least equal to those possessed by the Open Science Framework on December 31, {Year}.
   2. “Publicly accessible mathematical models” shall be defined as mathematical models whose registered report (including protocols), associated protocols, computer codes, data analysis scripts, and statistical analyses are archived on an online digital repository in a manner sufficient for continuing independent inspection, replication, reproduction, and/or verification. This online digital repository shall have archival and accessibility capacities at least equal to those possessed by the Open Science Framework on December 31, {Year}.